The Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins are expected to battle atop the AFC East standings all season, making Week 2’s Thursday Night Football matchup a massive one.
Both teams escaped with wins in their season openers, and our Bills vs. Dolphins predictions like Josh Allen to come out firing under tonight’s prime-time lights.
In addition to my best NFL picks on September 12, check out Rohit Ponnaiya’s favorite Bills vs. Dolphins props.
Bills vs Dolphins TNF prediction
My best betJosh Allen Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+102 at FanDuel)
My analysisJosh Allen put together one hell of a game for the Buffalo Bills in Week 1, throwing for two touchdowns and running for two others in a 34-28 win over the Arizona Cardinals.
Amid that effort, Allen injured his left (non-throwing) hand. While Allen hasn’t missed any practice time, he’s sporting a protective glove during sessions this week.
The health of that hand could have Buffalo dialing back the run calls for their mobile QB, notably inside the red zone where Allen has been extremely effective. Given that, the Bills will be dropping back more when knocking on the door of the end zone and giving a shot in the arm to Allen’s passing touchdown projections.
As it stands, Allen’s passing TD total is at 1.5. The Over opened at +116 but has been bet to as low as +105 as of this writing. Some player projections sit on the fence, calling for 1.5 TD connections but most models are at 1.6 strikes from the strong-armed Wyoming product.
Allen has had success against the Miami Dolphins in the past, putting up six total touchdowns in two matchups with Miami in 2023 and 33 total TDs across 12 career games versus the Fins — an average of 2.75 touchdowns per contest. Granted, the Bills’ receivers room looks a lot different than it did in previous years, thanks to a revamped depth chart in 2024.
Buffalo swapped out speeder deep threats for a bigger group of targets, with several WRs standing at six feet or taller. That’s added beef next to the Bills’ TE combo of Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid, giving Allen great options inside the red zone. Running back James Cook has also proven a potential pass-catcher, with four TD catches in 2023.
Miami’s defense is on its third coordinator in three years, with Anthony Weaver taking over for the departed Vic Fangio. Last season, the Dolphins gave up the seventh-most passing touchdowns per game (1.6) and allowed one TD pass to Jacksonville last Sunday.
With Allen apprehensive to tuck-and-run in the red zone due to the tender hand, I like him to drop back more and connect for at least two touchdowns on Thursday Night Football.
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Bills vs Dolphins TNF same-game parlay
Bills +2.5Josh Allen 2+ passing touchdownsJames Cook 60+ rushing yards
+313 at FanDuel
The final Week 1 scores for these teams were misleading and I believe this spread should be more in the PK range. I’ll grab the points with Buffalo, which looked much better in the opener.
Allen has jump-ball options in the end zone and a non-throwing hand injury will have him dropping back in the red zone rather than running it in.
Cook is projected for 60-plus rushing yards in Week 2 and the Fins are dinged-up at linebacker, allowing him to pick up yards in the second level.
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Bills vs Dolphins odds
Bills vs Dolphins live odds
Bills vs Dolphins opening odds
- Spread: Buffalo +1.5 | Miami -1.5
- Moneyline: Buffalo +120 | Miami -142
- Over/Under: Over 50.5 | Under 50.5
Odds courtesy of FanDuel.
Bills vs Dolphins spread and Over/Under analysis
• The look-ahead line in the summer listed Miami as a 1-point home favorite for this Thursday Night Football showcase. After the events of Week 1, bookies opened the Dolphins at -1.5 which jumped to -2 with concern around Allen’s hand.
• That spread has ticked up to Miami -2.5 as of Wednesday afternoon. The Dolphins have injuries at running back and will not have Raheem Mostert for Thursday, while De’Von Achane is questionable with an ankle injury. Yet, the line isn’t moving down.
• This Over/Under total hit the board at 50.5 points, which was a decline from the look-ahead total of 51.5 in the summer. Since then, this number has dropped to as low as 48.5 O/U.
• The forecast for Hard Rock Stadium calls for “feels like” temperatures at 106 degrees, due to the humidity. That will test the depth and early-season conditioning of both sides on the short week.
