The Tampa Bay Buccaneers head to Ford Field on Sunday to take on the Detroit Lions.
This game holds the highest total of the week at 51.5, but my Buccaneers vs. Lions predictions aren’t expecting a shootout. See why with my best NFL picks for this Week 2 showdown.
Buccaneers vs Lions prediction
My best betUnder 51.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysisAlthough the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are coming off a 37-20 victory where Baker Mayfield threw for 286 yards and four scores, that came against the Commanders who might have the worst defense in the league.
Washington ranked 29th in the NFL in pass rush win rate (54.3) in Week 1, and now Baker & Co. will face a Detroit Lions unit that led the league with a pass rush grade of 90.7 in their victory against the Rams.
Even when Aidan Hutchinson & Co. didn’t sack Matt Stafford, they were constantly in his face and that pressure will prevent Mayfield from finding Mike Evans and Chris Godwin downfield. Keep in mind that Mayfield had an offensive grade of 84.6 per PFF when kept clean in the pocket last year, but that number plummeted to 50.7 under pressure.
On the other side of the ball, the Lions struggled to get their passing game going. They led the NFL in rush EPA and success rate but finished just 27th in dropback success rate. Even at his best, Lions quarterback Jared Goff doesn’t push the ball downfield and he ranked near the bottom of the league in average intended air yards (7.0) a year ago.
Expect Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to continue leaning on his rushing attack against a Bucs stop unit that had a tough time containing Washington on the ground last week. That game plan should drain time off the clock and lead to the Under cashing.
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Buccaneers vs Lions same-game parlay
Under 51.5Rachaad White Under 44.5 rushing yardsAmon-Ra St. Brown Over 82.5 receiving yards
+450 at BetMGM
Rachaad White struggled as Tampa Bay’s lead running back last year. He averaged just 3.6 yards per carry and his rush yards over expected per attempt (-0.41) was the second-lowest for any RB with at least 150 carries.
That poor running has continued into this year, with White limited to just 31 yards on 15 carries last week with -2.15 rush yards over expected. Although the Lions’ defense is vulnerable in the back end, they are stingy against the run and should keep White in check.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is coming off a brutal 13-yard performance against the Rams, but he remains one of the most consistent receivers in the league. Expect him to bounce back here, especially with the Bucs secondary banged up and missing All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr.
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Buccaneers vs Lions odds
Buccaneers vs Lions live odds
Buccaneers vs Lions opening odds
- Spread: Tampa Bay +6.5 | Detroit -6.5
- Moneyline: Tampa Bay +225 | Detroit -275
- Over/Under: Over 48.5 | Under 48.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Buccaneers vs Lions spread and Over/Under analysis
- Early money poured in on the Over and drove the total up to 51.5, while the spread moved past the key number of 7 to -7.5.
- These teams faced off in the divisional round of the playoffs last season, with the Lions prevailing 31-23 as 6-point home faves.
- The Lions beat the Rams 26-20 last week and are now 14-5 straight up and against the spread in their last 19 games.
- The Bucs destroyed the Commanders last week, boasting a 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS mark over their last nine games.
